The electric car market could well rebound in 2025. Here are some reasons to believe it. The automobile sector is in crisis. Between falling sales, falling margins, the depression of the giants, the uncertainties linked to the transition to all-electric by 2035 and the announced surge of Chinese brands on the Old Continent, we must admit that the atmosphere has not really been one of party favors for a few months, and even more so since this summer.
As for what interests us the most, namely the electric car, there again it is not really a party. Sales have been at a standstill since the beginning of the year, and those for September are not really reassuring since the decline continues, with 30,405 registrations, or -6.4% compared to September 2023. That being said, if we want to see the bright side of things (yes, yes, come on...) we can be happy with two figures: on the one hand, the decline is much less sharp in September than in August, where it showed an abysmal -31.2% compared to August 2023. On the other hand, cumulatively since the beginning of 2024, the electric market continues to grow, certainly in an almost symbolic way (+5.4%) but this figure will allow you to shine at dinner parties by silencing all the electrosceptics.
Against all expectations, the car market is holding up
Finally, in terms of the market share of new electric car registrations, it was 16% at the end of September 2023, it is 17% at the end of September 2024, an increase of 1 point. It is progressing slowly, but it is progressing, contrary to what all the Cassandras in the sector are trying to make us believe, and there are many of them.
Especially since if we want to remain resolutely - but reasonably - optimistic, we can also say that the best is yet to come. On the one hand, for structural market reasons. Many specialists and analysts in the sector attribute the 2024 air pocket to the fact that first-time adopters are already largely equipped with electric cars, and that we are at the bottom of the wave that any emerging market experiences before really reaching the mass, that of the very general public. However, we know that the main obstacle to purchasing an EV for many of our compatriots remains the price, which is still considered too high. The possibilities of recharging, particularly in collective housing, being the second point of friction, or anxiety.
Regarding prices, the famous affordable electric cars that we (and you) have been talking about for several years now seem to finally be showing their hoods. The first examples of the Citroën ë-C3 have finally been hastily delivered to dealerships, and we should start seeing them roaming our provinces and thus collecting the first feedback from the happy owners. A great start, greatly helped, it is true, by social leasing. The electric Renault 5, although less economical, is expected to arrive at the end of the year. In the same price range as the latter, the KIA EV3 at €35,990 also seems promising. On the Chinese (or Franco-Chinese) side, there is also the Leapmotor T03 "from" Stellantis at €19,500 and the small BYD Seagull, even if the latter has not yet appeared in the brand's French catalog. Finally, let's not forget the Hyundai Inster expected for early 2025 in our country at around 22,000 euros, excluding the deduction of the ecological bonus (if it still exists by then).
This should give the market a little boost and prevent us from insulting the future too much.
The awakening of Europe?
But it is not only in the low-cost that things are stirring. In the intermediate ranges, it seems that we can also sense a European awakening, with several rather tempting new products. If we base ourselves on the price, say between 30,000 and 40,000 euros, it could be that here too the new electric R5 is in the lead, especially if we rely on the rather very positive first impressions of those who have already had the privilege of trying it, and who seem to confirm without hesitation a real success, a banger, as the young people say. In short, a future best-seller. Skoda has also just caused a sensation with the announcement of its very pretty Elroq compact SUV at 33,000 euros, or 29,000 euros eco bonus deducted. Volkswagen meanwhile slashes the price of its ID.3 in Germany to 29,960 euros, without indicating whether this reduction will also be applied in France.
Finally, in a slightly more upscale register, the Audi Q6, Porsche Macan EV and Polestar 3 (ok, with whole chunks of China inside) seem well born and could well finally find their customers.
Enough to revitalize the market and send a positive signal for 2025? We believe in it in any case.
It remains to be seen whether the electric car market is as dependent on aid and subsidies as people would like to say. Two indicators unfortunately seem to corroborate this hypothesis. On the one hand, the violent and abysmal collapse of EV sales in Germany since the abrupt removal of the ecological bonus in November 2023, with an uninterrupted fall in registrations, the peak of which was reached in August with a dizzying -44%. At the other end, the somewhat unexpected success of social leasing which had a real boost effect on EV sales in France. The two phenomena juxtaposed could lead us to believe that the market is only held up thanks to bonuses. We will know for sure when all these measures are removed, which will probably happen.
Is this desirable? Perhaps, after all, when we know the perverse effects of subsidies on prices. Will it be necessary to do it as brutally as our Teutonic friends? Perhaps not.
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